Large Drought Continues, But Its Fringes Erode

Nick Wiltgen Updated: Oct 18, 2012

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Latest Drought Map

The massive 2012 drought continued its slow retreat this week, though it continued to affect about five-eighths of the contiguous U.S. land mass, according to the latest weekly update from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said it expects this trend to largely continue for the next several months.

Seven-Day Rainfall

National Highlights

The percentage of the contiguous 48 states in drought fell just over one percentage point to about 62% this week, according to the multi-agency Drought Monitor report. Still, this is the 15th consecutive week above the 60% threshold, a level that had never previously been exceeded in the 12-year history of the analysis.

About 35,000 square miles of land were removed from drought classification, an area roughly equal to the size of Indiana. The reduction in the drought is the result of a recent wetter pattern that has set up across much of the West and Midwest.

Light rain in the Ohio Valley this week, coupled with generous rainfall in September, has led to significant improvements in several states. Overall the percentage of the Midwest in drought is down to 64.6%, nine points off the July peak; but the more intense drought categories have seen more improvement, with “extreme to exceptional” drought (levels 3-4) down from 38% in early August to just 15.5% this week.

Conditions have not improved as markedly in the West and High Plains regions, but nevertheless these areas saw slight reductions in drought intensity this week. The percentage of the West in “severe” drought (level 2) or worse is down to 42.6%, about eight points off the mid-August peak.

State-by-State Highlights

• Indiana saw one of the most noteworthy changes this week, dropping from 40% to 25% in drought with all of that being “moderate” (level 1) drought. On August 7, 100% of the state was in drought and 25% of that was the worst category, the level-4 “exceptional” drought.
• While Kansas and Oklahoma are still 100% in drought, some of the severity was reduced by generous rainfall of 2 to 5 inches over the past week. Oklahoma City received 2.56 inches of rain on Oct. 13 as strong storms threatened the Sooner State.
• Nevada has also seen some slight improvements, with the Las Vegas area now out of drought. The Drought Monitor report noted that even without any rainfall the rest of the year, Vegas would still log its 26th-wettest year on record. The city saw nearly an inch of rain on Oct. 10-11 from thunderstorms moving through the region.
• The rump area of drought in Georgia, long separated from the rest of the drought, remains stubborn as ever. All categories of dryness in the Peach State increased week-over-week.

NOAA

Brown areas indicate where drought is expected to persist through January 2013. Yellow areas are expected to see drought develop, while green areas are expected to see drought reduction.

Drought Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its seasonal drought outlook Thursday. It indicated that the large area of intense drought is likely to persist through at least January 2013.

The outlook calls for improvement along the fringes of the drought from Texas to the Ohio Valley as well as in California. It also calls for some improvement for the Georgia drought zone.

However, the outlook calls for drought to develop across much of the Pacific Northwest, especially east of the Cascades, where dry conditions were rampant in August and September after a wet first half of 2012.

About James Smith
James is a father of four and grandfather to four cute little bugs. He and his wife Beautiful Gorgeous, of almost 30 years, have been prepping since 2003.
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